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2016 NSW population and household projections 

Population projections show that NSW will grow to 9.9 million people by 2036.
 
The Department of Planning and Environment uses population and household projections to help plan for service and infrastructure delivery for the community.
 
These projections give us a framework for assessing future needs for residential and commercial land, housing and public utilities.
 
The 2016 NSW population and household projections show how our population is expected to change over the coming years.  The projections show the expected impact of these changes on households and the implied demand for housing.
 
These projections are not targets. Projections are based on assumptions that take into account trends for births, deaths and migration.
 
Projections can change due to factors such as migration levels, new technology and social attitudes to different living arrangements.

 

 

population projections drivers of change showing that Population Growth from 2011 to 2036 was 2.71 million


 

 

 


2016 NSW population projections - LGAs low, main and high series 

This file shows population projections for local government areas for the low, main and high series.  For more information about these series click here.

 

2016 NSW population projections data (xls 227Kb)

Individual file tabs in a flat file format contain a summary of population projection data for New South Wales, projection regions and all LGAs.  Individual file tabs are also available for population projections by five-year age group and sex for New South Wales and the projection regions.  Five-year age group data are available for LGAs with populations greater than 3,000 in 2011.  For smaller LGAs, age group data are provided for four age groups: 0-14, 15-44, 45-64, 65+.

 

2016 NSW population projections – Local Health Districts (xls 30Kb)

This file shows population projections for the Local Health Districts. 

2016 NSW household and dwelling projections data (XLS 177KB)

Individual file tabs in a flat file format contain information for New South Wales, projection regions and all LGAs about the projected number of households and implied dwellings, projected household types and projected average household size. For New South Wales and the projection regions, population living arrangement characteristics are also provided.


In each of the files below, individual file tabs for each local government area (LGA) contain information about the projected population by age, projected household types and the projected implied dwellings.


Ten ‘what if?’ scenarios have been produced to illustrate what happens to the population when different specific levels of births, deaths, or migration are used to develop the projections.  These scenarios can be used to create high and low growth population projection series, where all assumptions changed to create high or low growth.  

Future levels of births, deaths and migration cannot be predicted with high levels of accuracy. The main 2016 population projections are based on assumptions that are based on our best assessment of likely future trends. The high and low projection series and the suite of scenarios show a range of possible population futures. 
   
The projection scenarios show users what would happen if there were changes to current trends. The high and low series should not be interpreted as an upper and lower bound for potential population growth. They are designed to explore a plausible range of future population changes.  

High projection series assumes:

  • The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) rises to 2.12 births per woman by 2036
  • Life expectancy at birth rises to 90.6 years for females, and to 87.3 years for males, by 2036
  • Net Interstate Migration (NIM) drops to -12,000 per annum by 2021 and held at the same level to 2036  
  • Net Overseas Migration (NOM) rises to 81,150 per annum by 2036.


Low projection series assumed:

  • The TFR rises to 1.84 births per woman by 2036
  • Life expectancy at birth rises to 86.9 years for females, and to 83.3 years for males, by 2036
  • NIM drops to -22,000 per annum by 2021 and held at the same level to 2036 
  • NOM rises to 58,700 per annum by 2036.

The ten projection scenarios change a single assumption at a time (either births, deaths, overseas migration, or interstate migration).   All the other assumptions remain the same as those used in the main 2016 population projections. The following scenarios are available:

  • Low fertility (the TFR rises to 1.84 births per woman by 2036, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)
  • High fertility (the TFR rises to 2.12 births per woman by 2036, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)
  • Low life expectancy (life expectancy at birth rises to 86.9 years for females, and to 83.3 years for males, by 2036, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)  
  • High life expectancy (life expectancy at birth rises to 90.6 years for females, and to 87.3years for males, by 2036, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)  
  • Low NOM (NOM rises to 58,700 per annum by 2036, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)
  • High NOM (NOM rises to 81,150 per annum by 2036, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)
  • Low NIM (NIM drops to -22,000 per annum by 2021 and held at the same level to 2036, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)
  • High NIM (NIM drops to -12,000 per annum by 2021 and held at the same level to 2036, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)
  • Zero NOM (NOM set at zero, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection)
  • Zero NOM or NIM (NOM and NIM set at zero, all other assumptions are those used in the main 2016 projection

The two excel files below have the NSW population projections for the high and low series, and the 10 scenarios.  The tabs in each file show the impact of different assumptions on population size, growth rates, the drivers of population change and the population age profile.  

The next two excel files for the 10 planning regions show the impact of the different assumptions on the total population.  The tab for each region shows the population projection scenario or series outputs.

The file below shows the population projections for each local government area (LGA) based on assumptions for the high and low series.  

Click on a region to see the range of projected population growth.  The range shows the high and low series and highlights the main projection series.  All projection scenarios, except for zero migration, lie between the high and low population projections. 


2016 Population Projections User Guide

The NSW Population Projections User Guide is for people using NSW population projection data to understand how the projections are prepared and how to use them. It answers common questions about projection data, the methods used to prepare the population projections, their interpretation and use.

 

2016 Household Projections User Guide

The NSW Household Projections User Guide is for people using NSW household projection data to understand how the projections are prepared and how to use them. It answers common questions about projection data, the methods used to prepare the household projections, their interpretation and use.

Page last updated: 07/10/2016