According to the 2022 NSW Population Projections, NSW will need to house an additional 85,000 people every year for the next 20 years. By 2041, the population will reach:
- 3.7 million in regional NSW
- 6.1 million in Greater Sydney.
We will need an additional 904,000 homes over the next 20 years to house this growing population. That means 45,200 new homes per year, including 28,500 in Greater Sydney and 16,700 in regional NSW.
These projections assume net migration returns to near pre-COVID levels by 2025. While the Australian Government has recently increased the number of permanent migration visas by 35,000 for FY 2022–23, bringing the ceiling to 195,000, broader economic conditions will affect how quickly migration returns. The sustained downturn in migration in 2022–23 could dampen additional housing demand in the short to medium term. In addition, the permanent migration program has historically played a relatively small role in overall population growth with most applicants already in Australia at the time of application.
Recognising the long lead times for housing, we need to plan now to meet the implied dwelling demand in NSW.
Implied dwelling demand for NSW
904,000Total new homes needed by 2041 in NSW
45,200homes per year
28,500homes per year in Greater Sydney
16,700home per year in regional areas
Projected population growth and implied dwelling demand in NSW
Source: Department of Planning and Environment 2022 - NSW Population and Implied Dwelling Projections
Page last updated: 10/02/2023