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NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment
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Population of NSW was 8.16 million at 30 June 2020 and grew by 76,700 (0.9%)Population of NSW was 8.16 million at 30 June 2020 and grew by 76,700 (0.9%) over the course of the year

One in three people in Australia live in NSWOne in three people in Australia live in NSW

Births outnumber deaths by 42,543 births, 98,305 deaths, 55,762Births outnumber deaths by 42,713 (births, 97,946; deaths, 55,233)

Net overseas migration (67,569) is offset by people moving interstate (-22,301)Net overseas migration (54,923) is offset by people moving interstate (–20,887)

COVID-19 will affect population growth; the impact will be greatest in the citiesCOVID-19 will affect population growth; the impact will be greatest in the cities

Key 2020 factors

population projections headline infographic pandemic 120x120population projections headline infographic bushfire 120x120population projections headline infographic economy 120x120

Events in NSW, other parts of Australia and globally are affecting population change in 2020. Key factors over the past 12 months include the continued drought, bushfires, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic recession.

 

In 2019–20, the NSW economy contracted for the first time in recorded history (records for NSW Gross State Product by the Australian Bureau of Statistics began in 1990). The economy is a key influence of population change in NSW.

 

As time goes by, the effects of COVID-19 will be more evident.

 

Variations

population projections headline infographic place 120x120population projections headline infographic age sex 120x120

Typically, cities grow faster than regions. However, COVID-19 is expected to impact cities more than regions.

 

Overseas migrants usually settle in cities, which does not occur while borders are closed.

 

Most migrants are also young adults, so growth of this age group will be affected.

 

What will the population look like over time now?

Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra

 
Year Rest of NSW -
Central scenario
Rest of NSW -
Pre-COVID-19 scenario
Sydney -
Central scenario
Sydney -
Pre-COVID-19 scenario
2019-20 2790800 2794300 5367300 5393100
2020-21 2798400 2812300 5357300 5476900
2021-22 2806800 2830400 5355400 5560700
2022-23 2819100 2848600 5389600 5644500
2023-24 2835500 2867100 5458000 5728800
2024-25 2852200 2885400 5528200 5812900
2025-26 2868800 2903500 5599800 5896800
2026-27 2885400 2921400 5672700 5980300
2027-28 2901800 2938900 5746900 6063500
2028-29 2917900 2955900 5822200 6145700
2029-30 2933500 2972400 5897000 6227500
2030-31 2948700 2988500 5971400 6308800

Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra

 
Year Rest of NSW -
Central scenario
Rest of NSW -
Pre-COVID-19 scenario
Sydney -
Central scenario
Sydney -
Pre-COVID-19 scenario
2019-20 2400 2700 39900 41000
2020-21 1300 2600 37500 41600
2021-22 800 2600 35600 42100
2022-23 1400 2700 36200 42400
2023-24 1900 2600 37200 42500
2024-25 2000 2400 37300 42600
2025-26 1700 2200 36900 42600
2026-27 1300 2000 36200 42500
2027-28 800 1600 35600 42400
2028-29 200 1200 35200 42300
2029-30 -300 700 35000 42100
2030-31 -700 100 35000 41800

Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra

 
Year Rest of NSW -
Central scenario
Rest of NSW -
Pre-COVID-19 scenario
Sydney -
Central scenario
Sydney -
Pre-COVID-19 scenario
2019-20 8000 11400 42000 66800
2020-21 -1700 11500 -25300 66700
2021-22 200 11400 -14500 65600
2022-23 5100 11400 20800 64900
2023-24 10000 11400 54100 64800
2024-25 10300 11500 55900 64500
2025-26 10600 11500 57700 64200
2026-27 10900 11500 59600 64000
2027-28 11200 11500 61500 63700
2028-29 11500 11500 63000 63000
2029-30 11500 11500 62700 62700
2030-31 11500 11500 62400 62400

Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra

 
Year Rest of NSW -
Central scenario
Rest of NSW -
Pre-COVID-19 scenario
Sydney -
Central scenario
Sydney -
Pre-COVID-19 scenario
2019-20 4000 3700 -25000 -25000
2020-21 7900 3900 -22300 -24500
2021-22 7400 4000 -22900 -24000
2022-23 5800 4200 -22800 -23500
2023-24 4400 4400 -23000 -23000
2024-25 4400 4400 -23000 -23000
2025-26 4400 4400 -23000 -23000
2026-27 4400 4400 -23000 -23000
2027-28 4400 4400 -23000 -23000
2028-29 4400 4400 -23000 -23000
2029-30 4400 4400 -23000 -23000
2030-31 4400 4400 -23000 -23000

What are the 2020 annual insights?

The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment and the NSW Government prepare the NSW annual insights as a supplement to the 2019 NSW population projections. The 2019 projections remain the government’s common planning assumptions until they are updated in 2022.

 

The insights aim to provide commentary on the changes in population and community over the past 12 months and in between projection releases.

 

More information

Page last updated: 21/01/2021