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Population of NSW was 8.16 million at 30 June 2020 and grew by 76,700 (0.9%) over the course of the year
One in three people in Australia live in NSW
Births outnumber deaths by 42,713 (births, 97,946; deaths, 55,233)
Net overseas migration (54,923) is offset by people moving interstate (–20,887)
COVID-19 will affect population growth; the impact will be greatest in the cities
Events in NSW, other parts of Australia and globally are affecting population change in 2020. Key factors over the past 12 months include the continued drought, bushfires, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic recession.
In 2019–20, the NSW economy contracted for the first time in recorded history (records for NSW Gross State Product by the Australian Bureau of Statistics began in 1990). The economy is a key influence of population change in NSW.
As time goes by, the effects of COVID-19 will be more evident.
Typically, cities grow faster than regions. However, COVID-19 is expected to impact cities more than regions.
Overseas migrants usually settle in cities, which does not occur while borders are closed.
Most migrants are also young adults, so growth of this age group will be affected.
Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra
| Year | Rest of NSW - Central scenario |
Rest of NSW - Pre-COVID-19 scenario |
Sydney - Central scenario |
Sydney - Pre-COVID-19 scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | 2790800 | 2794300 | 5367300 | 5393100 |
| 2020-21 | 2798400 | 2812300 | 5357300 | 5476900 |
| 2021-22 | 2806800 | 2830400 | 5355400 | 5560700 |
| 2022-23 | 2819100 | 2848600 | 5389600 | 5644500 |
| 2023-24 | 2835500 | 2867100 | 5458000 | 5728800 |
| 2024-25 | 2852200 | 2885400 | 5528200 | 5812900 |
| 2025-26 | 2868800 | 2903500 | 5599800 | 5896800 |
| 2026-27 | 2885400 | 2921400 | 5672700 | 5980300 |
| 2027-28 | 2901800 | 2938900 | 5746900 | 6063500 |
| 2028-29 | 2917900 | 2955900 | 5822200 | 6145700 |
| 2029-30 | 2933500 | 2972400 | 5897000 | 6227500 |
| 2030-31 | 2948700 | 2988500 | 5971400 | 6308800 |
Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra
| Year | Rest of NSW - Central scenario |
Rest of NSW - Pre-COVID-19 scenario |
Sydney - Central scenario |
Sydney - Pre-COVID-19 scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | 2400 | 2700 | 39900 | 41000 |
| 2020-21 | 1300 | 2600 | 37500 | 41600 |
| 2021-22 | 800 | 2600 | 35600 | 42100 |
| 2022-23 | 1400 | 2700 | 36200 | 42400 |
| 2023-24 | 1900 | 2600 | 37200 | 42500 |
| 2024-25 | 2000 | 2400 | 37300 | 42600 |
| 2025-26 | 1700 | 2200 | 36900 | 42600 |
| 2026-27 | 1300 | 2000 | 36200 | 42500 |
| 2027-28 | 800 | 1600 | 35600 | 42400 |
| 2028-29 | 200 | 1200 | 35200 | 42300 |
| 2029-30 | -300 | 700 | 35000 | 42100 |
| 2030-31 | -700 | 100 | 35000 | 41800 |
Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra
| Year | Rest of NSW - Central scenario |
Rest of NSW - Pre-COVID-19 scenario |
Sydney - Central scenario |
Sydney - Pre-COVID-19 scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | 8000 | 11400 | 42000 | 66800 |
| 2020-21 | -1700 | 11500 | -25300 | 66700 |
| 2021-22 | 200 | 11400 | -14500 | 65600 |
| 2022-23 | 5100 | 11400 | 20800 | 64900 |
| 2023-24 | 10000 | 11400 | 54100 | 64800 |
| 2024-25 | 10300 | 11500 | 55900 | 64500 |
| 2025-26 | 10600 | 11500 | 57700 | 64200 |
| 2026-27 | 10900 | 11500 | 59600 | 64000 |
| 2027-28 | 11200 | 11500 | 61500 | 63700 |
| 2028-29 | 11500 | 11500 | 63000 | 63000 |
| 2029-30 | 11500 | 11500 | 62700 | 62700 |
| 2030-31 | 11500 | 11500 | 62400 | 62400 |
Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra
| Year | Rest of NSW - Central scenario |
Rest of NSW - Pre-COVID-19 scenario |
Sydney - Central scenario |
Sydney - Pre-COVID-19 scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | 4000 | 3700 | -25000 | -25000 |
| 2020-21 | 7900 | 3900 | -22300 | -24500 |
| 2021-22 | 7400 | 4000 | -22900 | -24000 |
| 2022-23 | 5800 | 4200 | -22800 | -23500 |
| 2023-24 | 4400 | 4400 | -23000 | -23000 |
| 2024-25 | 4400 | 4400 | -23000 | -23000 |
| 2025-26 | 4400 | 4400 | -23000 | -23000 |
| 2026-27 | 4400 | 4400 | -23000 | -23000 |
| 2027-28 | 4400 | 4400 | -23000 | -23000 |
| 2028-29 | 4400 | 4400 | -23000 | -23000 |
| 2029-30 | 4400 | 4400 | -23000 | -23000 |
| 2030-31 | 4400 | 4400 | -23000 | -23000 |
The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment and the NSW Government prepare the NSW annual insights as a supplement to the 2019 NSW population projections. The 2019 projections remain the government’s common planning assumptions until they are updated in 2022.
The insights aim to provide commentary on the changes in population and community over the past 12 months and in between projection releases.
Page last updated: 21/01/2021