The Sydney Housing Supply Forecast provides an estimate of future housing supply that will be built over the next five years. They are prepared by the Department to inform infrastructure planning and service delivery, as well as to inform decisions on future land use zoning.
The forecast is an estimate of the number of new dwellings that could be built if current zoning and planning controls remain the same. They reflect current trends in residential construction and approval activity. These could potentially change in the future as housing development is influenced by a wide variety of economic, social and other factors, many of which can't be foreseen.
The Department also publishes an estimate of the Implied Dwelling Requirements which is a measure of likely housing demand based on projected population growth and household formation.
The forecast is based on currently zoned and publicly announced supply. It reflects current trends in residential construction and approval activity.
The residential development pipeline is measured by collecting data from several sources:
Current residential developments identified in the development pipeline are classified within one of the following stages:
|A development application has been submitted to the relevant consent authority
||The development application has been approved by relevant consent authority, but construction is yet to commence
||Construction of the development has commenced
The residential pipeline contributes significantly to the five year forecast. The assumed forecast year is based on size/cost of proposed development, and development and approvals stage.
The Department uses the Urban Feasibility Model (UFM) to measure housing potential. The model is based on current zoning and planning controls, and cadastre and existing dwellings data within a residential area. The database is updated annually to ensure it is current for each forecasting year. Development feasibility is not used as a forecasting input.
Sydney Water provides private dwelling connections data monthly to the Department. It is geocoded to identify the location and size of each new residential connection. The data is used as a proxy for net additional dwelling completions.
Completions data gives a clear indication of past levels of development. The dataset dates to 1998.
The forecast methodology applied depends upon the prevailing development type and geography, highlighting the nuanced approach built into the forecasting process.
The annual Sydney housing supply forecast applies generally to private dwellings in the form of detached houses, medium density development (townhouses, terraces, villas) and apartments.
The annual Sydney housing supply forecast considers new State or council initiated rezonings; and precinct planning and major developments led by the State government where commitments to rezoning and development are in place.
It does not consider the following:
The annual Sydney housing supply forecast does not explicitly forecast the following dwelling types:
However, the Department is reviewing options to collate data on these forms of dwellings for general information.
Page last updated: 17/05/2019