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NSW Department of Planning and Environment
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The department has prepared three growth scenarios to account for the continuing challenges COVID-19 presents to forecasting Sydney’s housing supply. These scenarios consider the current status of, and potential changes to, NSW’s market conditions and housing demand factors. The medium growth scenario represents the most likely outcome based on market conditions and demand factors at the time of preparing the forecast in October 2021. The low growth and high growth scenarios explore the impacts of potential changes to these conditions.

Overview

The department forecasts construction of 143,400 to 161,300 new homes in Greater Sydney in the next five years (2021-22 to 2025-26) based on current programs and initiatives and various market conditions and demand factors. Figure 2 displays the Sydney housing supply forecast by financial year.

Figure 2. 2021 Sydney housing supply forecast by financial year.

 

Greater Sydney Five-Year Forecast

Year Low growth scenario Medium growth scenario High growth scenario
2021-22 27,950 27,950 27,950
2022-23 27,300 29,400 32,050
2023-24 29,250 30,900 32,850
2024-25 28,750 30,550 32,800
2025-26 30,200 32,700 35,600

The medium growth scenario estimates the construction of 151,500 new homes.

Major drivers include:

  • the housing market impacts of COVID-19
  • a pre-COVID-19 housing market slow-down
  • a smaller number of homes under construction
  • fewer new housing approvals
  • an increase in the number of homes in the development pipeline that are approved for development but not yet under construction.

You can download more information in the Explanatory notes, glossary and data downloads section.

Page last updated: 21/07/2022