We have prepared 3 growth scenarios to account for the continuing challenges COVID-19 presents to forecasting Sydney’s housing supply. These scenarios consider the status of, and potential changes to, NSW’s market conditions and housing demand factors.
The medium-growth scenario is the most likely outcome, based on market conditions and demand factors when we were preparing the forecast in October 2021. The low-growth and high-growth scenarios explore the effects of potential changes to these conditions.
Overview
We forecast the construction of 143,400 to 161,300 new homes in Greater Sydney in the 5 years from 2021–22 to 2025–26, based on current programs and initiatives, and various market conditions and demand factors. The graph below displays the Sydney Housing Supply Forecast by financial year.
Greater Sydney Five-Year Forecast
| Year | Low growth scenario | Medium growth scenario | High growth scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 27,950 | 27,950 | 27,950 |
| 2022-23 | 27,300 | 29,400 | 32,050 |
| 2023-24 | 29,250 | 30,900 | 32,850 |
| 2024-25 | 28,750 | 30,550 | 32,800 |
| 2025-26 | 30,200 | 32,700 | 35,600 |
The medium growth scenario estimates the construction of 151,500 new homes.
Major drivers include:
- the housing market effects of COVID-19
- a pre-COVID-19 housing market slow-down
- a smaller number of homes under construction
- fewer new housing approvals
- an increase in the number of homes in the development pipeline that are approved for development but not yet under construction.
Download more information in the Explanatory notes, glossary and data downloads section.