A NSW Government website

How we developed the targets

New 5-year housing targets have been set for 43 Local Government Areas in the Greater Sydney, Central Coast, Hunter and Greater Newcastle and Illawarra-Shoalhaven regions and one target for regional NSW.

These replace outdated targets in Greater Sydney previously set by the Greater Sydney Commission for 2021-22 to 2025-26.

The new 5-year housing targets set the minimum expected growth for each of the 43 LGAs and set the trajectory for NSW to meet its commitment of delivering 377,000 new homes, aligning the targets to the commitment of local, state and federal governments to the National Housing Accord.

How the targets were set

A robust evidence-base was used to inform the targets, that:

  • allows NSW to meet its share of 1.2 million homes nationally (377,000 new homes)
  • delivers diverse and well-located housing close to existing centres and transport connections
  • aligns with existing, available infrastructure capacity.

The targets are informed by the latest available data and evidence, including:

  • baseline estimate of homes already in the pipeline and planned for completion
  • additional homes expected from new planning reforms, including the Transport Oriented Development Program (TOD) and the reforms to low- and mid-rise housing
  • local environmental risks (e.g. flood and bushfire)
  • development feasibility of new, diverse housing
  • information on infrastructure capacity and planned servicing
  • demand for new housing in outer regional NSW.


The NSW target is allocated to 43 LGAs and to regional NSW using a consistent, data-driven method. The method was applied to measure planned and projected new homes using the latest available data and supply forecasts.

Planned new homes

Planned new homes are measured from the expected number of new homes to be completed over 5-years, under current market conditions (baseline supply).

These homes are currently under construction, approved but yet to commence, under assessment or planned for delivery by June 2029. The estimate of planned new homes is based on the 2023 Sydney Housing Supply Forecast. The estimate is extended to regions outside of Sydney using the latest available data from the ABS on NSW and local housing activity.

The 2023 Sydney Housing Supply Forecast is a point in time estimate, as at December 2023 and is updated each year to reflect new planning reforms over the previous 12 months.

Projected new homes

Projected new homes are measured from the expected number of new homes to be completed over 5 years from planning reforms to allow for more diverse and well-located homes.

These projections were measured by modelling, for each reform, including:

  • Total dwelling capacity – the number of additional dwellings that could theoretically be built under proposed planning controls and zoning.
  • Total expected dwellings per year – the number of homes expected over the medium term, and per year, based on the program scope, design, timing, dwelling type and development approval and construction timeframes.

Constraints on the total expected dwellings per year were considered and accounted for, including:

  • bushfire and flood-risk impacts on dwelling potential in some LGAs
  • industry capacity constraints on new diverse dwellings in LGAs with lower feasibility. In the short term, take-up is assumed to be higher in areas where there is a higher willingness-to-pay for diverse housing, like mid-rise apartments
  • expected demand for new dwellings in regional NSW, to ensure regional population growth can be met.

The reforms and adjustments are key to rebalancing housing growth where demand for diverse housing is high and infrastructure cost less.