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For the first time, the department has prepared a forecast with three scenarios that consider the current status of and potential changes to NSW’s market conditions and demand factors as a result of COVID-19. The central base case scenario represents the most likely outcome based on market conditions and demand factors at the time of preparing the forecast in October 2020. The high growth and low growth scenarios explore the impacts of potential changes to these conditions.
The department forecasts construction of 132,800 to 171,200 new homes in Greater Sydney in the next five years (2020-21 to 2024-25) based on current programs and initiatives and various market conditions and demand factors. Figure 3 displays the Sydney housing supply forecast by financial year.
Figure 3. 2020 Sydney housing supply forecast by financial year.
Year | High growth case | Central base case | Low growth case |
2020-21 | 31,200 | 30,400 | 28,200 |
2021-22 | 34,950 | 31,050 | 26,150 |
2022-23 | 35,250 | 31,700 | 25,750 |
2023-24 | 34,450 | 30,050 | 25,350 |
2024-25 | 35,350 | 31,350 | 27,350 |
The central base case scenario estimates the construction of 154,550 new homes.
This is partly explained by:
You can download more information in the Explanatory notes, glossary and data downloads section.
Figure 4 compares the central base case scenario of new homes for the next five years to the last five years of completed new homes.
Figure 4. New homes completed in the last five years and central base case scenario of new homes for the next five years
Financial Year | Completed new homes |
2015-16 | 30,200 |
2016-17 | 34,400 |
2017-18 | 42,200 |
2018-19 | 42,400 |
2019-20 | 32,450 |
Financial Year | Forecast new homes |
2020-21 | 30,400 |
2021-22 | 31,050 |
2022-23 | 31,700 |
2023-24 | 30,050 |
2024-25 | 31,350 |
Figure 5 compares the five LGAs forecast to deliver the most new homes over the next five years to the LGAs that have built the most new homes in the last five years.
Figure 5. Completed new homes in top five LGAs in the past five years and central base case scenario new homes in top five LGAs for the next five years
LGA | Completed new homes |
Parramatta | 18,850 |
Sydney | 16,000 |
Blacktown | 15,350 |
Bayside | 12,200 |
Camden | 11,600 |
LGA | Forecast new homes |
Blacktown | 16,950 |
Parramatta | 15,450 |
Sydney | 13,100 |
The Hills | 11,550 |
Cumberland | 10,200 |
Note the continued rise in the contribution of Central City and Western City LGAs to Sydney’s housing supply relative to the Eastern City LGAs. This can be partially explained by:
The map in Figure 6 shows the distribution of the central base case scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region.
Figure 6. The distribution of the central base case scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region
View a larger version of the map
For the first time, the department has published the Sydney housing supply forecast by suburb, to provide a better spatial representation of the forecast. The map in Figure 7 shows the distribution of the central base case scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region.
Figure 7. The distribution of the central base case scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region
View a larger version of the map
The high growth scenario represents the outcome under improved market conditions and demand factors compared with the status at the time of preparing the forecast. The high growth scenario forecasts 171,200 new homes between 2020-21 and 2024-25.
The outcome under this scenario is close to the number of homes delivered in the last five years (for example 171,200 under the high growth scenario, 180,000 in the last 5 years).
Figure 8. New homes completed in the last five years and high growth scenario of new homes for the next five years
Financial Year | Completed new homes |
2015–16 | 30,200 |
2016–17 | 34,400 |
2017–18 | 42,200 |
2018–19 | 42,400 |
2019–20 | 32,450 |
Financial Year | Forecast new homes |
2020–21 | 31,200 |
2021–22 | 34,950 |
2022–23 | 35,250 |
2023–24 | 34,450 |
2024–25 | 35,350 |
Figure 10 compares the five LGAs forecast to deliver the most new homes over the next five years to the LGAs that have built the most new homes in the last five years. Under the high growth scenario, the top performing LGAs are the same as under the central base case scenario.
Figure 10. Completed new homes in top five LGAs in the past five years and high growth scenario new homes in top five LGAs for the next five years
LGA | Completed new homes |
Parramatta | 18,850 |
Sydney | 16,000 |
Blacktown | 15,350 |
Bayside | 12,200 |
Camden | 11,600 |
LGA | Forecast new homes |
Blacktown | 22,300 |
Parramatta | 16,550 |
Sydney | 14,200 |
The Hills | 11,850 |
Cumberland | 11,600 |
The map in Figure 11 shows the distribution of the high growth scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region.
Figure 11. The distribution of the high growth scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region
View a larger version of the map
The map in Figure 12 shows the distribution of the high growth scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region.
Figure 12. The distribution of the high growth scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region
The low growth scenario represents the outcome under a deterioration in the market conditions and demand factors compared to the status at the time of preparing the forecast. The low growth scenario forecasts 132,500 new homes between 2020-21 and 2024-25.
Figure 13. New homes completed in the last five years and low growth scenario of new homes for the next five years.
Financial Year | Completed new homes |
2015–16 | 30,200 |
2016–17 | 34,400 |
2017–18 | 42,200 |
2018–19 | 42,400 |
2019–20 | 32,450 |
Financial Year | Forecast new homes |
2020–21 | 28,200 |
2021–22 | 26,150 |
2022–23 | 25,750 |
2023–24 | 25,350 |
2024–25 | 27,350 |
Under the low growth scenario, there are slight differences in the top performing LGAs when compared to the central base case scenario. This can be seen in Figure 14.
Figure 14. Completed new homes in top five LGAs in the past five years and low growth scenario new homes in top five LGAs for the next five years.
LGA | Completed new homes |
Parramatta | 18,850 |
Sydney | 16,000 |
Blacktown | 15,350 |
Bayside | 12,200 |
Camden | 11,600 |
LGA | Forecast new homes |
Blacktown | 14,400 |
Parramatta | 13,100 |
Sydney | 12,100 |
The Hills | 10,650 |
Canterbury–Bankstown | 7,550 |
The map in Figure 15 shows the distribution of the low growth scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region.
Figure 15. The distribution of the low growth scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region.
View a larger version of the map
The map in Figure 16 shows the distribution of the low growth scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region.
Figure 16. The distribution of the low growth scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region.
Page last updated: 26/02/2021