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NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment
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Forecast insights

For the first time, the department has prepared a forecast with three scenarios that consider the current status of and potential changes to NSW’s market conditions and demand factors as a result of COVID-19. The central base case scenario represents the most likely outcome based on market conditions and demand factors at the time of preparing the forecast in October 2020. The high growth and low growth scenarios explore the impacts of potential changes to these conditions.

 

Overview

The department forecasts construction of 132,800 to 171,200 new homes in Greater Sydney in the next five years (2020-21 to 2024-25) based on current programs and initiatives and various market conditions and demand factors. Figure 3 displays the Sydney housing supply forecast by financial year.

 

Figure 3. 2020 Sydney housing supply forecast by financial year.

 

Greater Sydney Five Year Forecast

Year High growth case Central base case Low growth case
2020-21 31,200 30,400 28,200
2021-22 34,950 31,050 26,150
2022-23 35,250 31,700 25,750
2023-24 34,450 30,050 25,350
2024-25 35,350 31,350 27,350

 

The central base case scenario estimates the construction of 154,550 new homes.

 

This is partly explained by:

  • the housing market impacts of COVID-19
  • a pre-COVID-19 housing market slow-down, with a smaller number of homes under construction, fewer new housing approvals, and an increase in the number of homes in the development pipeline that are approved for development but not yet under construction.

 

You can download more information in the Explanatory notes, glossary and data downloads section.

 

Central base case scenario

Figure 4 compares the central base case scenario of new homes for the next five years to the last five years of completed new homes.

 

Figure 4. New homes completed in the last five years and central base case scenario of new homes for the next five years

 

Completions

Financial Year Completed new homes
2015-16 30,200
2016-17 34,400
2017-18 42,200
2018-19 42,400
2019-20 32,450

Forecast

Financial Year Forecast new homes
2020-21 30,400
2021-22 31,050
2022-23 31,700
2023-24 30,050
2024-25 31,350

Central base case scenario – LGA

Figure 5 compares the five LGAs forecast to deliver the most new homes over the next five years to the LGAs that have built the most new homes in the last five years.

 

Figure 5. Completed new homes in top five LGAs in the past five years and central base case scenario new homes in top five LGAs for the next five years

 

Completions

LGA Completed new homes
Parramatta 18,850
Sydney 16,000
Blacktown 15,350
Bayside 12,200
Camden 11,600

Forecast

LGA Forecast new homes
Blacktown 16,950
Parramatta 15,450
Sydney 13,100
The Hills 11,550
Cumberland 10,200

Note the continued rise in the contribution of Central City and Western City LGAs to Sydney’s housing supply relative to the Eastern City LGAs. This can be partially explained by:

  • the completion or near completion of significant high-density housing development projects on large sites in the Eastern City.
  • the numerous long-term greenfield development sites which feed into the Central City and Western City numbers and expanding high-density urban centres.

 

The map in Figure 6 shows the distribution of the central base case scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region.

 

Figure 6. The distribution of the central base case scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region

This map shows the distribution of the central base case scenario across the 33 LGAs of Greater Sydney. The LGAs are shaded from light to very dark blue to indicate whether they have less to more homes forecast. Blue Mountains, Hawkesbury, Hornsby, Hunters Hill, Mosman, Northern Beaches, Randwick, Waverley, Wollondilly and Woollahra LGA’s have the least amount of new homes forecast, at less than 2,000. Burwood, Campbelltown, Canada Bay Fairfield, Georges River, Inner West, Ku-ring-gai, Lane Cove, North Sydney, Strathfield and Sutherland LGAs are forecast to have 2,001 to 5,000 new homes. Bayside, Camden, Canterbury-Bankstown, Liverpool, Penrith and Ryde LGAs are forecast to have 5,001 to 10,000 new homes. Cumberland, The Hills and Sydney are forecast to have the 10,001 to 15,000 new homes. Both Blacktown and Parramatta are forecast to have the most new homes; over 15,001.

View a larger version of the map

 

Central base case scenario – suburb

For the first time, the department has published the Sydney housing supply forecast by suburb, to provide a better spatial representation of the forecast. The map in Figure 7 shows the distribution of the central base case scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region.

 

Figure 7. The distribution of the central base case scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region

This map shows the distribution of the central base case scenario by suburb. Suburbs with the greatest number of new homes forecast are concentrated in the North West as well as in Blacktown, Parramatta, Lidcombe and Macquarie Park. There are suburbs with higher levels of homes forecast in the South West as well as in Mascot, Bankstown, Liverpool and Penrith. There are less new homes forecast along the Northern Beaches and in the Blue Mountains, Wollondilly and Hawkesbury LGAs.

View a larger version of the map

 

High growth scenario

The high growth scenario represents the outcome under improved market conditions and demand factors compared with the status at the time of preparing the forecast. The high growth scenario forecasts 171,200 new homes between 2020-21 and 2024-25.

 

The outcome under this scenario is close to the number of homes delivered in the last five years (for example 171,200 under the high growth scenario, 180,000 in the last 5 years).

 

Figure 8. New homes completed in the last five years and high growth scenario of new homes for the next five years

 

Completions

Financial Year Completed new homes
2015–16 30,200
2016–17 34,400
2017–18 42,200
2018–19 42,400
2019–20 32,450

Forecast

Financial Year Forecast new homes
2020–21 31,200
2021–22 34,950
2022–23 35,250
2023–24 34,450
2024–25 35,350

High growth scenario – LGA

Figure 10 compares the five LGAs forecast to deliver the most new homes over the next five years to the LGAs that have built the most new homes in the last five years. Under the high growth scenario, the top performing LGAs are the same as under the central base case scenario.

 

Figure 10. Completed new homes in top five LGAs in the past five years and high growth scenario new homes in top five LGAs for the next five years

 

Completions

LGA Completed new homes
Parramatta 18,850
Sydney 16,000
Blacktown 15,350
Bayside 12,200
Camden 11,600

Forecast

LGA Forecast new homes
Blacktown 22,300
Parramatta 16,550
Sydney 14,200
The Hills 11,850
Cumberland 11,600

The map in Figure 11 shows the distribution of the high growth scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region.

 

Figure 11. The distribution of the high growth scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region

This map shows the distribution of the high growth scenario across the 33 LGAs of Greater Sydney. The LGAs are shaded from light to very green purple to indicate whether they have less to more homes forecast. Blue Mountains, Hawkesbury, Hornsby, Hunters Hill, Mosman, Northern Beaches, Randwick, Waverley, Wollondilly and Woollahra have the least amount of new homes forecast, at less than 2,000. Burwood, Campbelltown, Canada Bay Fairfield, Georges River, Inner West, Ku-ring-gai, Lane Cove, North Sydney, Strathfield and Sutherland LGAs are forecast to have 2,001 to 5,000 new homes. Bayside, Camden, Liverpool, Penrith and Ryde are forecast to have 5,001 to 10,000 new homes. Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, The Hills and Sydney LGAs are forecast to have 10,001 to 15,000 new homes. Both Blacktown and Parramatta are forecast to have the most new homes; over 15,001.

View a larger version of the map

 

High growth scenario – suburb

The map in Figure 12 shows the distribution of the high growth scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region.

 

Figure 12. The distribution of the high growth scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region

This map shows the distribution of the high growth scenario by suburb. Overall, there are more suburbs with new homes forecast in them than the central base case scenario. Suburbs with the greatest number of new homes forecast are concentrated in the North West as well as in Blacktown, Parramatta, Lidcombe and Macquarie Park. There are suburbs with higher levels of homes forecast in the South West as well as in Sydney, Mascot, Bankstown, Liverpool and Penrith. There are less new homes forecast along the Northern Beaches and in the Blue Mountains, Wollondilly and Hawkesbury LGAs.

View a larger version of the map

Low growth scenario

The low growth scenario represents the outcome under a deterioration in the market conditions and demand factors compared to the status at the time of preparing the forecast. The low growth scenario forecasts 132,500 new homes between 2020-21 and 2024-25.

 

Figure 13. New homes completed in the last five years and low growth scenario of new homes for the next five years.

 

Completions

Financial Year Completed new homes
2015–16 30,200
2016–17 34,400
2017–18 42,200
2018–19 42,400
2019–20 32,450

Forecast

Financial Year Forecast new homes
2020–21 28,200
2021–22 26,150
2022–23 25,750
2023–24 25,350
2024–25 27,350

Low growth scenario – LGA

Under the low growth scenario, there are slight differences in the top performing LGAs when compared to the central base case scenario. This can be seen in Figure 14.

 

Figure 14. Completed new homes in top five LGAs in the past five years and low growth scenario new homes in top five LGAs for the next five years.

 

 

Completions

LGA Completed new homes
Parramatta 18,850
Sydney 16,000
Blacktown 15,350
Bayside 12,200
Camden 11,600

Forecast

LGA Forecast new homes
Blacktown 14,400
Parramatta 13,100
Sydney 12,100
The Hills 10,650
Canterbury–Bankstown 7,550

The map in Figure 15 shows the distribution of the low growth scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region.

 

Figure 15. The distribution of the low growth scenario across all 33 LGAs in the Greater Sydney region.

This map shows the distribution of the low growth scenario across the 33 LGAs of Greater Sydney. The LGAs are shaded from light to very dark purple to indicate whether they have less to more homes forecast. Under this scenario, no LGA is forecast to deliver over 15,000 new homes. Blue Mountains, Canada Bay, Hawkesbury, Hornsby, Hunters Hill, Ku-ring-gai, Lane Cove, Mosman, North Sydney, Northern Beaches, Randwick, Strathfield, Waverley, Wollondilly and Woollahra LGAs are forecast to deliver less than 2,000 new homes. Burwood, Campbelltown, Fairfield, Georges River, Inner West, Ryde and Sutherland are forecast to deliver between 2,000 to 5,000 new homes. Bayside, Camden, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Liverpool and Penrith LGAs are forecast to deliver 5,001 to 10,000 new homes. Blacktown, Parramatta, The Hills, Sydney are all forecast to deliver the most new homes, at over 10,001.

View a larger version of the map

 

Low growth scenario—suburbs

The map in Figure 16 shows the distribution of the low growth scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region.

 

Figure 16. The distribution of the low growth scenario across all suburbs in the Greater Sydney region.

This map shows the distribution of the low growth scenario by suburb. Overall, there are more suburbs with less new homes forecast in them than the central base case scenario. Suburbs with the most number of new homes forecast are concentrated in the North West as well as in Parramatta and Macquarie Park. There are suburbs with higher levels of homes forecast in the South West as well as in Sydney, Mascot, Bankstown, Liverpool and Penrith. There are less new homes forecast along the Northern Beaches and in the Blue Mountains, Wollondilly and Hawkesbury LGAs.

View a larger version of the map

Page last updated: 26/02/2021

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