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NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment
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Explanatory notes

The Sydney housing supply forecast is an estimate of the number of new dwellings that could be built under current zoning and planning controls, as well as current programs and initiatives and various market conditions and demand factors. It reflects current trends in residential construction and approval activity. These trends could potentially change in the future, as a variety of economic, social and other factors—many of which we cannot foresee—influence housing development. We create the forecast using standard inputs and assumptions and adjust it with annual variables to reflect current economic conditions and feedback. You can read out detailed method paper (PDF, 572KB).

 

The Sydney housing supply forecast is the key data set for potential housing supply in the future. Obviously, underlying demand is an important factor in the housing market and therefore for supply. To understand potential future underlying demand, the department publishes an estimate of implied dwelling requirement as part of its 2019 population projections; this is based on projected population growth and household formation.

 

Forecast inputs and method

The forecast methodology we apply depends upon the prevailing development type and location. This reflects the nuanced approach built into the forecasting process. Figure 20 summarises the key inputs. You can find more information on the method, including the detailed dwelling type, geographic coverage and assumptions and variables, in the method paper (PDF, 572KB).

 

Figure 20: Housing supply forecast data inputs

This is an infographic showing the four key forecast inputs. The inputs are as follows: 1. Upcoming Developments: As measured through the residential development pipeline, a database of current residential development projects, and the greenfield audit, which tracks recently subdivided residential lots and residential subdivision development projects in key re-zoned greenfield areas. Proposed developments are allocated an assumed forecast year based on their size and cost, as well as the development and approvals stage. 2. Dwelling Potential: The department measures dwelling potential in urban areas using the Urban Feasibility Model, which is based on current zoning, planning controls, and cadastre and existing dwellings data within a residential area. The department annually updates this information to ensure it is current for each forecasting year. Development feasibility is not used in forecasting. 3. Historic Net Dwelling Completions: Sydney Water Connections data is used as a proxy for net additional dwelling completions to give an indication of past levels of development. Sydney Water provides the department with private dwelling (residential) connections data. This is geocoded to identify the location and size of each new residential connection. 4. Stakeholder Feedback. Stakeholder input is critical to forecasting. The Department engages with local Councils, State Government agencies and industry to get their insights and feedback on what is currently happening in residential development and key localised trends.

View a larger version of the Sydney housing supply forecast data inputs infographic

 

Forecast coverage

Private dwellings

The Sydney housing supply forecast generally applies to private dwellings - typically detached houses, medium-density development (townhouses, terraces and villas) and apartments.

 

Geographic areas

The forecasts cover all 33 LGAs in Greater Sydney, including the new councils from 12 May 2016 and 9 September 2016.

 

This year for the first time the department has released the Sydney housing supply forecast at a suburb level.

 

Data Download

The Sydney housing supply forecast data download (PDF, 100 KB) is an excel spreadsheet that contains:

  • the central base case scenario by financial year for the next five years (FY2020-21 to 2024-25) by District and LGA and five-year total by suburb
  • the high growth scenario by financial year for the next five years (FY2020-21 to 2024-25) by District and LGA and five-year total by suburb
  • the low growth scenario by financial year for the next five years (FY2020-21 to 2024-25) by District and LGA and five-year total by suburb

 

Historic Sydney housing supply forecasts are available below:

 

Data is also available on the NSW digital twin.

Disclaimer

Although we have made every reasonable effort to ensure that these forecasts are correct at the time of release, the State of New South Wales, its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequence of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of these projections.

Page last updated: 08/02/2021