The Sydney housing supply forecast is an estimate of the number of new dwellings that could be built under current zoning and planning controls, as well as current programs and initiatives and various market conditions and demand factors. It reflects current trends in residential construction and approval activity. These trends could potentially change in the future, as a variety of economic, social and other factors—many of which we cannot foresee—influence housing development. We create the forecast using standard inputs and assumptions and adjust it with annual variables to reflect current economic conditions and feedback. You can read out detailed method paper (PDF, 572KB).
The Sydney housing supply forecast is the key data set for potential housing supply in the future. Obviously, underlying demand is an important factor in the housing market and therefore for supply. To understand potential future underlying demand, the department publishes an estimate of implied dwelling requirement as part of its 2019 population projections; this is based on projected population growth and household formation.
The forecast methodology we apply depends upon the prevailing development type and location. This reflects the nuanced approach built into the forecasting process. Figure 20 summarises the key inputs. You can find more information on the method, including the detailed dwelling type, geographic coverage and assumptions and variables, in the method paper (PDF, 572KB).
Figure 20: Housing supply forecast data inputs
The Sydney housing supply forecast generally applies to private dwellings - typically detached houses, medium-density development (townhouses, terraces and villas) and apartments.
The forecasts cover all 33 LGAs in Greater Sydney, including the new councils from 12 May 2016 and 9 September 2016.
This year for the first time the department has released the Sydney housing supply forecast at a suburb level.
The Sydney housing supply forecast data download (PDF, 100 KB) is an excel spreadsheet that contains:
Historic Sydney housing supply forecasts are available below:
Data is also available on the NSW digital twin.
Although we have made every reasonable effort to ensure that these forecasts are correct at the time of release, the State of New South Wales, its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequence of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of these projections.
Page last updated: 08/02/2021