Explanatory notes

The Sydney housing supply forecast is an estimate of the number of new dwellings that could be built under current zoning and planning controls, as well as current programs and initiatives and various market conditions and demand factors. It reflects current trends in residential construction and approval activity. These trends could potentially change in the future, as a variety of economic, social and other factors—many of which we cannot foresee—influence housing development. We create the forecast using standard inputs and assumptions and adjust it with annual variables to reflect current economic conditions and feedback. You can read out detailed method paper (PDF, 572 KB).

The Sydney housing supply forecast is the key data set for potential housing supply in the future. Obviously, underlying demand is an important factor in the housing market and therefore for supply. To understand potential future underlying demand, the department publishes an estimate of implied dwelling requirement as part of its 2019 population projections; this is based on projected population growth and household formation.

Forecast inputs and method

The forecast methodology we apply depends upon the prevailing development type and location. This reflects the nuanced approach built into the forecasting process. Figure 20 summarises the key inputs. You can find more information on the method, including the detailed dwelling type, geographic coverage and assumptions and variables, in the method paper (PDF, 572 KB).

Figure 6: Housing supply forecast data inputs

View a larger version of the Sydney housing supply forecast data inputs infographic

Forecast coverage

Private dwellings

The Sydney housing supply forecast generally applies to private dwellings - typically detached houses, medium-density development (townhouses, terraces and villas) and apartments.

Geographic areas

The forecasts cover all 33 LGAs in Greater Sydney, including the new councils from 12 May 2016 and 9 September 2016.

This year for the first time the department has released the Sydney housing supply forecast at SA2 and greenfield precinct level.

Data Download

The 2021 Sydney housing supply forecast data download (XLSX, 122 KB) is an excel spreadsheet that contains:

• the medium growth scenario by financial year for the next five years (FY2021-22 to 2025-26) by District and LGA, and five-year total by suburb, SA2 and greenfield precinct
• the high growth scenario by financial year for the next five years (FY2021-22 to 2025-26) by District and LGA, and five-year total by suburb, SA2 and greenfield precinct
• the low growth scenario by financial year for the next five years (FY2021-22 to 2025-26) by District and LGA, and five-year total by suburb, SA2 and greenfield precinct

Data is also available in CSV format at Data.NSW.

Historic Sydney housing supply forecasts are available below:

• 2020 (XLSX, 101 KB)
• 2019 (XLSX, 66 KB)
• 2018 (XLSX, 59 KB)
• 2017 (XLSX, 59 KB)

Data is also available on the NSW Digital Twin.

Disclaimer

Although we have made every reasonable effort to ensure that these forecasts are correct at the time of release, the State of New South Wales, its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequence of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of these projections.