The Sydney Housing Supply Forecast provides an estimate of future housing supply that will be built over the next five years. It is prepared by the Department to inform infrastructure planning and service delivery, as well as to inform decisions on future land use zoning.
The forecast is an estimate of the number of new dwellings that could be built if current zoning and planning controls remain the same. It reflects current trends in residential construction and approval activity. These trends could potentially change in the future as housing development is influenced by a wide variety of economic, social and other factors, many of which can't be foreseen.
The Department also publishes an estimate of the Implied Dwelling Requirements which is a measure of likely housing demand based on projected population growth and household formation.
The forecast is based on currently zoned and publicly announced supply. It reflects current trends in residential construction and approval activity and counts expected dwelling completions.
Upcoming developments are measured through residential development pipeline data.
The residential development pipeline is measured by collecting data from several sources:
Current residential developments identified in the development pipeline are classified within one of the following stages:
The residential pipeline contributes significantly to the five year forecast. The assumed forecast year is based on size/cost of proposed development, and development and approvals stage.
Dwelling potential in urban areas is measured through the Department’s Urban Feasibility Model.
The Department uses the Urban Feasibility Model (UFM) to measure housing potential. The model is based on current zoning and planning controls, and cadastre and existing dwellings data within a residential area. The database is updated annually to ensure it is current for each forecasting year. Development feasibility is not used as a forecasting input.
Historic new dwelling completions are measured through Sydney Water connections data.
Sydney Water provides private dwelling connections data regularly to the Department. It is geocoded to identify the location and size of each new residential connection. The data is used as a proxy for net additional dwelling completions.
Completions data gives a clear indication of past levels of development. The dataset dates to 1998.
The forecast methodology applied depends upon the prevailing development type and geography highlighting the nuanced approach built into the forecasting process.
Stakeholder input is crucial to forecasting involving lengthy consultation with local councils, State Government agencies and industry.
The annual Sydney housing supply forecast applies generally to private dwellings in the form of detached houses, medium density development (townhouses, terraces, villas) and apartments.
The annual Sydney housing supply forecast considers new State or council initiated rezonings; and precinct planning and major developments led by the State Government where commitments to rezoning and development are in place.
It does not consider the following:
The forecasts cover all 33 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Greater Sydney, including those new councils proclaimed on 12 May 2016 and 9 September 2016.
Bayside, Blacktown, Blue Mountains, Burwood, Camden, Campbelltown, Canada Bay, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Fairfield, Georges River, Hawkesbury, Hornsby, Hunters Hill, Inner West, Ku-ring-gai, Lane Cove, Liverpool, Mosman, North Sydney, Northern Beaches, Parramatta, Penrith, Randwick, Ryde, Strathfield, Sutherland, Sydney, The Hills, Waverley, Willoughby, Wollondilly, Woollahra.
While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that these forecasts are correct at the time of release, the State of New South Wales, its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequence of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of these projections.
Page last updated: 23/01/2020