Sydney housing supply forecast 2022 data (XLSX, 237.2 KB) is an excel spreadsheet that contains forecasts for medium-, high- and low-growth scenarios by financial year for the next 5 years (2022–23 to 2026–27) by city, district and local government area, and 5-year total by suburb, SA2 and greenfield precinct.
The Sydney Housing Supply Forecast generally applies to private dwellings – typically detached houses, medium-density development (townhouses, terraces and villas) and apartments.
The forecasts cover all 33 local government areas in Greater Sydney and is available at city, district, SA2, suburb and greenfield precinct levels.
The forecasting method we apply depends upon the prevailing development type and location. You can find more information on the method, including the detailed dwelling type, geographic coverage, assumptions and variables, in the 2022 Sydney housing supply forecast – Methodology: Assumptions and Inputs (PDF, 740.4 KB).
The forecast is derived from:
- the current pipeline of residential development
- analysis of likely future development under current zoning and planning controls
- announced changes in identified state and council strategic precincts
- planning proposals that have gateway approval
- information from state and local government and industry
- economic and external factors shaping the outlook for housing demand.
How we develop the forecast
Upcoming developments are measured through the residential development pipeline (residential development data from several sources) and the greenfield audit, which tracks recently subdivided residential lots and residential subdivision development projects in key rezoned greenfield areas. Proposed developments are allocated an assumed forecast year based on their size and the stage of development.
Dwelling potential is measured by the department’s Development Capacity Model (DCM), which is updated quarterly. The model is based on current zoning, planning controls, cadastre and existing dwellings data within a residential area. Development feasibility is not used in forecasting.
Sydney Water Connections data is used as a proxy for net additional dwelling completions to give an indication of past development. Sydney Water provides private dwelling connections data, which is geocoded to identify the location and size of each new residential connection.
Stakeholder feedback is sought from councils, government agencies and industry to get their insights on what is happening in residential development and key localised trends.
Although we have made every reasonable effort to ensure that these forecasts are correct at the time of release, the State of New South Wales, its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequence of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of these projections.