The Sydney Housing Supply Forecast is an estimate of the number of new homes that could be built under current zoning and planning controls, as well as current programs, initiatives, market conditions and demand factors. It reflects current trends in residential construction and approval activity.
These trends could change in the future, as a variety of economic, social and other factors—many of which we cannot foresee—influence housing development. We create the forecast using standard inputs and assumptions. We adjust it for annual variables to reflect current economic conditions and feedback. You can find out more from the 2020 inputs and standard framework (PDF, 572 KB).
The forecast is the key data set for potential housing supply. Underlying demand is an important factor in the housing market and therefore for supply. To understand potential future underlying demand, we published an estimate of implied dwelling requirement as part of our 2019 population projections. This is based on projected population growth and household formation.
Forecast inputs and method
The forecasting method we apply depends upon the prevailing development type and location. You can find more information on the method, including the detailed dwelling type, geographic coverage, assumptions and variables, in the 2020 inputs and standard framework (PDF, 572 KB).
Housing supply forecast data inputs
As measured through; the residential development pipeline, a collection of current residential developments from several sources, and; the greenfield audit, which tracks recently subdivided residential lots and residential subdivision development projects in key rezoned greenfield areas. Proposed developments are allocated an assumed forecast year based on their size, the stage of development.
As measured in urban areas using the department's Urban Feasibility Model. The model is based on current zoining, planning controls, cadastre and existing dwellings data within a residential area. This information is updated annually to ensure it is current for each forcasting year. Development feasibility is not used in forcasting.
Sydney Water Connections data is used as a proxy for net additional dwelling completions to give an indication of past levels of development. Sydney Water provides the department with private dwelling (residential) connections data. This is geocoded to identify the location and size of each new residential connection.
Stakeholder input is critical to forecasting. The department engages with local councils, state government agencies and industry to get their insights and feedback on what is currently happening in residential development and key localised trends.
Forecast coverage
Private dwellings
The Sydney Housing Supply Forecast generally applies to private dwellings – typically detached houses, medium-density development (townhouses, terraces and villas) and apartments.
Geographic areas
The forecasts cover all 33 local government areas (LGAs) in Greater Sydney.
We have also released the forecast at Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) and greenfield precinct level. The Australian Bureau of Statistics defines SA2s, which are smaller than local government areas and may represent a single suburb. These offer more spatial detail.
Data download
The 2021 Sydney housing supply forecast data download (XLSX, 122 KB) contains:
- the medium-growth scenario by financial year for the next 5 years (2021–22 to 2025–26) by district and LGA, and 5-year total by suburb, SA2 and greenfield precinct
- the high-growth scenario by financial year for the next 5 years (2021–22 to 2025–26) by district and LGA, and 5-year total by suburb, SA2 and greenfield precinct
- the low-growth scenario by financial year for the next 5 years (2021–22 to 2025–26) by district and LGA, and 5-year total by suburb, SA2 and greenfield precinct.
Data is also available in CSV format at Data.NSW.
The following historic Sydney Housing Supply forecasts are available:
- Sydney housing supply forecast 2020 data (XLSX, 101 KB)
- Sydney housing supply forecast 2019 data (XLSX, 66 KB)
- Sydney housing supply forecast 2018 data (XLSX, 59 KB)
- Sydney housing supply forecast 2017 data (XLSX, 59 KB)
Data is also available on the NSW Digital Twin.
Disclaimer
Although we have made every reasonable effort to ensure that these forecasts are correct at the time of release, the State of New South Wales, its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequence of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of these projections.